Here you got two apparent statistical issues well assuming the article is to be believed: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/2...l-sweden-murder . Case in brief: convicted for several murders without much more evidence than confessions; in many cases the prosecution even did argue then that his confessions were indeed reliable (he was, after all, insane).
Prosecution claimed that Berwall had provided information that only the police and the murderer could know about. Let us disregard the claims that he could indeed pick it up in the newspaper, and let us interpret know about as guess without knowing. Arguing by the infinite monkey theorem, he could of course have guessed sufficiently close, given a large number of attempts.
Had this been a listening test, it would have been the fallacy of reporting only your positives. Either on a single pair to be ABXed or, alternatively, going to hydrogenaudio with the one nice ABX log out of a hundred.
(I suggested a partial foobar2000 fix against this: http://www.hydrogenaudio.org/forums/index....showtopic=96006 )
Consider then Bergwall's claim that he could guess the right answer out of leading questions.
That's lack of blinding. The test administrator is biased, he wants to have his product sold, and the listener can tell from the grin of his face that this time, X = his expensive product.
Prosecution claimed that Berwall had provided information that only the police and the murderer could know about. Let us disregard the claims that he could indeed pick it up in the newspaper, and let us interpret know about as guess without knowing. Arguing by the infinite monkey theorem, he could of course have guessed sufficiently close, given a large number of attempts.
Had this been a listening test, it would have been the fallacy of reporting only your positives. Either on a single pair to be ABXed or, alternatively, going to hydrogenaudio with the one nice ABX log out of a hundred.
(I suggested a partial foobar2000 fix against this: http://www.hydrogenaudio.org/forums/index....showtopic=96006 )
Consider then Bergwall's claim that he could guess the right answer out of leading questions.
That's lack of blinding. The test administrator is biased, he wants to have his product sold, and the listener can tell from the grin of his face that this time, X = his expensive product.